The future of mobility
Rollout of the electric and smart transportation industry
Rollout of the electric and smart transportation industry
Propulsion Québec has hired MARCON to make projections on the future of the electric and smart transportation (EST) industry. See the highlights of this analysis of the projected impacts from today to 2050.
However, these figures should not be viewed as an ironclad prediction, but rather a trend.
This study was carried out with the financial participation of the Government of Quebec.
Transformation of the North American vehicle fleet
Transformation of the North American vehicle fleet
Based only on classic factors such as population and GDP growth, the North American vehicle fleet should increase in the coming decades.
A combination of a number of factors will cause gradual changes in people’s transportation habits and freight transport practices. So gradual market penetration by EST technologies will bring about substantial shifts in the makeup and size of the North American vehicle fleet by 2050.
Advances in EST will change this “classic” trend in the North American fleet. Other socioeconomic and regulatory factors and new business models will also affect the size of the fleet.
It is anticipated that the development of mobility hubs for passenger transportation, facilitating urban and interurban travel, will generate significant growth in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (buses, light rail, tramways, etc.). This will also lead to a decrease in the number of light vehicles, due to a more intensive and shared use, despite an increase in passenger trips generated in particular by the increase in MaaS4.*
*Mobility as a Service: Mobility as a Service is a digital service that provides access to all means of transportation via a single smartphone app.
.
.
As regards freight transport, the growth of consolidation centers on the outskirts of urban centers will encourage an increase in the number of heavy-duty vehicles for long-distance transport, while medium-duty vehicles, which take up less space for local deliveries, will reduce congestion over shorter distances.
.
.
Due to advances in EST, the North American vehicle fleet is expected to decrease in the coming decades in contrast with what the “classic” model predicts.
.
.
However, the different categories of vehicles will not evolve in the same way in the coming decades. EST will transform the nature of the North American vehicle fleet over the long term (2050), with a marked decrease in light vehicles, a major increase in the number of medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, and a significant increase in rail vehicles.
Despite the gradual decrease in the total number of light vehicles in the North American fleet, the increase in electric and smart vehicles is expected to be very significant.
The move toward electric and smart medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles will be even more significant, as at the moment they are still virtually nonexistent on the market.
*See the full study or executive summary for all the scenarios studied and a full, by-the-numbers breakdown of predictions.
READ THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Changes in the percentage of electric and smart vehicles in the North American fleet
Changes in the percentage of electric and smart vehicles in the North American fleet
The future percentage of electric and smart vehicles was assessed according to a (non-econometric) model developed to include
numerous socioeconomic, technological, regulatory, and other parameters.
Electric vehicles: A wider choice of electric light vehicles, especially in the important subcategory of utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and vans.
Smart vehicles: Commercialization of autonomous vehicles (SAE level 4 and/or 5) as of 2030.
Impacts on the industry value chain in Quebec
Impacts on the industry value chain in Quebec
The transformation of the vehicle fleet will have a big impact on the value chain of Quebec’s electric and smart transportation industry over the medium and long term. Quebec’s potential in this sector varies by type of technology and step in the value chain.
.
.
Regarding electric transportation, Quebec’s potential is high for the following links in the value chain:
- Manufacturing of medium-duty vehicles (especially for specialized uses)
- Manufacturing of heavy-duty vehicles (truck, buses, and trains)
- Charging infrastructure
- Services and use in connection with all types of vehicles
In the case of smart transportation, the potential of Quebec industry is highest in the following categories:
- Vehicle and infrastructure components in the optics and artificial intelligence sectors
- Services and use in connection with all types of vehicles
.
.
To learn more about Horizon 2050, EST, and Quebec’s labor and training needs in this sector, please refer to the full “Horizon 2050 and Labor Training Needs in the Electric and Smart Transportation Sector in Quebec” study (available only in French).